ESG

"Structural reforms in China should drive higher margins and higher prices"

Market-watchers have paid close attention to Chinese president Xi Jinping’s address, to the 19th Communist Party congress, which has been tipped to translate into higher commodity prices.

Staff reporter
 Chinese president Xi Jinping’s plans could translate into higher commodity prices

Chinese president Xi Jinping’s plans could translate into higher commodity prices

The congress is held every five years to set the country's direction and Xi has laid out a 30-year plan for 2020-2050 to create a modern, advanced and prosperous socialist country.

Xi said China would continue efforts to cut overcapacity, reduce excess inventory, lower costs and work to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand.

In a note, RBC Capital Markets analyst Tyler Broda said Xi's re-iteration of supply-side reforms was not a surprise, but certainly suggested that some of the recent changes seen to metals supply dynamics were likely to continue and increase in force.

"The structural reform of Chinese overcapacity has the potential to significantly alter current equilibrium levels and in general will mean higher utilisation rates globally in industries such as steel and aluminium and others," Broda wrote.

"This should translate into generally higher commodity prices."

He said pollution curbs would have a dislocating effect and further policy shifts in the week-long congress could add volatility.

"We therefore continue to recommend a cautious near-term approach for the London diversified miners after their recent rally, however the continuation of the structural reforms in China should drive higher margins and higher prices in the medium term," he said.

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