Currently viewing Global edition

Saxo bullish on gold despite June lows

Despite gold’s poor performance in recent weeks, bullish Saxo Bank has kept its end of year price at well over US$1,300 per ounce.
Saxo bullish on gold despite June lows Saxo bullish on gold despite June lows Saxo bullish on gold despite June lows Saxo bullish on gold despite June lows Saxo bullish on gold despite June lows

Burning a hole in your portfolio: gold fell 5% between June 14 and July 2

Staff reporter

Gold was last about $1,300 in mid-June and since then has fallen to an equal-12 month low of $1,240 in recent weeks. 

Saxo Bank head of commodity research Ole Hansen said in his September quarter forecast his previous estimates had been overconfident but he was still certain of improvement in the gold price.

"The deteriorating outlook during June has challenged but not destroyed our positive outlook for gold," he said.

He said the stronger US dollar and interest rates had contributed to the net-long position count falling to a 17-month low, according to the most recent CFTC commitment of traders report.

"Gold's performance turned sharply lower during June as the yellow metal struggled to find a defence against the stronger dollar and Fed chair Powell's hawkish stance on continued normalisation of US rates," he said.

"Three quarters of gains were reversed after traders grew frustrated following the yellow metal's inability to break key resistance above $1,360/oz on multiple occasions."

Nonetheless, Hansen put his end of year gold price at $1,325/oz.

Goldmoney saw a way for the yellow metal to get back to $1,300/oz through markets being "less hawkish on the interest rate outlook".

This is backed by expectations around the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting minutes, which will be released this week.

Bank of America economist Joseph Song told Bloomberg the minutes "might take a little of the hawkish air out of the June" projections, and the strong US dollar should also keep inflation in check and stop Fed intervention.