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Vaccine to boost gold price, says Stoeferle

The successful deployment of a vaccine for COVID-19 has been held up by some as a likely headwind for bullion prices, but Ronald Stoeferle, author of the report “In gold we trust”, believes it will have the opposite effect.
Vaccine to boost gold price, says Stoeferle Vaccine to boost gold price, says Stoeferle Vaccine to boost gold price, says Stoeferle Vaccine to boost gold price, says Stoeferle Vaccine to boost gold price, says Stoeferle

COVID-19 vaccine: a shot in the arm for the gold price?

Speaking at this week's virtually-held European Precious Metals Summit, Stoeferle, managing partner of asset manager Incrementum AG, said a vaccine could trigger a wave of inflation, with gold prices rising in the aftermath.

"Once we have the vaccine, all this uncertainty will be being priced out, people will become more positive, there will be a light at the end of the tunnel," he said.

At that moment, Stoeferle said there would be a "fork in the road" for central bankers.

"Velocity [of money] will start rising, and it will meet an enormous amount of liquidity that was created over the last couple of months. At this point, central bankers would have to become more hawkish. Do I think this is going to happen? No way. So from my point of view, this will be the point in time when inflation really becomes a big concern," said Stoeferle.

"Once inflation really becomes a concern … I think there will be an exodus out of the bond market. Will it go to real estate? Perhaps. Will it go into equities? Perhaps. But will it go into the most reliable inflation hedge that we're having over the last couple of decades, even centuries, which is gold," he said.

Besides the vaccine, Stoeferle said there were "many signs already telling us that inflation is around the corner".

"Have a look at precious metals prices; have a look at energy markets. Why is oil trading at US$35/barrel? Even if we're in this pretty negative environment, where will the price of oil go to if the economy really recovers … I think the market is telling us that inflation is around," he said.

Despite the strong gold price run over the past year, Stoeferle said he believed the yellow metal was still "under-owned" - a situation he suggested left room for price upside.

"The renaissance of gold in institutional portfolios has just started and will be one of the main catalysts for this bull market," he said, noting most market participants "especially the generalists", were yet to fully recognise the bull market.

But the main driver for the gold price would remain negative real rates, said the financier.

"The Federal Reserve wants to see inflation overshooting over the next couple of years. So this, ladies and gentlemen, is the recipe for negative real rates for the next years to come - which is the perfect environment for gold," he said.

Stoeferle's latest "In gold we trust" report estimates a gold price of US$4,800/oz by the end of the decade.

"That sounds like quite a lot, but that's an annual growth rate of 10%. Now if inflation should become a concern, do you think that $4,800/oz is really such a bullish scenario? I don't think so," he said.

In a presentation littered with dramatic statements, Stoeferle described coronavirus as "the accelerator of the overdue recession that heralds the dawn of a new monetary world order".

"After the COVID crisis comes the debt crisis. Rising price inflation is not a tail risk, ladies and gentlemen, negative real rates are the new normal for investors," he said.