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Macquarie bearish on gold

Despite some positive movement in the gold price in recent weeks, Macquarie analysts say it will follow fundamentals and stay at the current levels while the US dollar is strong.
Macquarie bearish on gold Macquarie bearish on gold Macquarie bearish on gold Macquarie bearish on gold Macquarie bearish on gold

Macquarie says gold could come down to an average of $1,175/oz in the March quarter

Staff reporter

In its 2019 forecast, the Australian bank put the average price for the upcoming March quarter at below US$1,200 per ounce.

This forecast means a drop from the current price of $1,231/oz can't be far off.

"[The] US-China trade war is a source of market anxiety and, therefore, potential support for gold and silver prices. But for now, buoyant US economic activity and the US Fed's ongoing rate-hike cycle matter more to investors," the Macquarie analysts said.

"These are dominant supports of the US dollar (and of demand for USD-denominated assets)."

Macquarie also picked cobalt to fall a further 40% and lithium carbonate CFR China to come off more than 30% to $7,350 per tonne by the end of next year.

Earlier, London broker SP Angel noted the first sequential monthly gain in the gold price since January.

"Gold's outlook improves as investors place bets on whether the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle is close to played out as 2019 looms, and as portions of the Treasuries market may be flashing warning signs about the near-term stance," John Meyer said.

Goldman Sachs is more bullish than Macquarie, saying it's hard to imagine gold dropping further.

Macquarie's top pick for the next 12 months was nickel, which it said would climb over 20% to $14,500/t, followed by platinum close behind and silver at around 10% growth year-on-year.