BASE METALS

JP Morgan sees copper price rebound

JP Morgan is forecasting over a 20% upside in copper prices in the second half of this year to around $10,000 a tonne as China’s economy and investment rebounds.

JP Morgan sees copper rebound

JP Morgan sees copper rebound

"We expect accelerating China FAI [fixed asset investment] (on infrastructure and property) will favour iron ore and copper. JP Morgan forecasts circa $10,000 a tonne copper in second half of 2022 as China copper demand rises 5% year-on-year," the Wall Street investment bank said in a research note today. 

Copper prices are currently trading close to their lowest levels since February last year largely on the back of recession fears. 

"Our macro and commodity price outlook is optimistic - we do not forecast a global or China recession, nor do we discount future risk of new COVID lockdowns in China," said JP Morgan. 

"Under this commodity price outlook, after significant share price falls in the second quarter, we are starting to see attractive upside to fair value (vs share prices) for European miners on a 2022/23 view," it said. 

Metals and mining stocks ranked as the weakest sector on the MSCI Europe index in the second quarter of this year, down 29%, as US and European monetary policy tightening and global recession fears gathered pace. 

"Base metals fell 10-20% in June and we continue to be most concerned on weakening consumer sentiment and metals exposed to autos. Yet, in stark contrast to US and Europe, JPM Economists forecast China's GDP will accelerate in the second half of 2022 to over 7.5% quarter on quarter." 

 

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