PRECIOUS METALS

Possible counter-cyclical gold opportunity beckons: BMO

The lack of investor interest in precious metals could present a counter-cyclical buying opportunity, according to BMO Capital Markets.

Staff reporter
 Canada-based gold producer Agnico Eagle Mines, whose assets include Meadowbank in Nunavut, is among BMO’s top picks

Canada-based gold producer Agnico Eagle Mines, whose assets include Meadowbank in Nunavut, is among BMO’s top picks

Analyst Jackie Przybylowski noted the dearth of interest in the sector despite BMO holding in-person meetings in New York and Boston following the Gold Forum Americas conference this month, saying nearly all meetings had centred on base metals.

Mining Journal's Paul Harris had also noted the sector was struggling to attract investment, saying he had met with issuers and institutional investors at the conference and while all reported having positive meetings, they had lamented the general malaise over the precious metals sector. 

"The current low interest level in the sector could provide an attractive entry point, in our view," Przybylowski said.

Amid mixed macroeconomic signals last week, investors were generally bullish metallurgical coal and coal producers at current spot prices and generally bearish copper, she said.

BMO expected Teck Resources' potential sale of its coal division would be top-of-mind at the company's analyst and investor day today but believed completing the sale of this business was likely years away.

Meanwhile the current market volatility, potential for weakness in the Chinese economy, possible increased geopolitical instability, especially in Peru and Chile, plus ongoing delays to global reopening as the world wrestled with COVID variants could spur investor interest in gold equities, Przybylowski said.

"We note that, while the market is keen to see M&A to add 'excitement' to the sector, we continue to expect that larger producers generally have sufficient projects in their near-term pipelines and do not require near-term growth," she said.

"We also note that most investors remain unsupportive of major M&A growth, especially where it jeopardizes near-term capital returns to shareholders - broadly, this continues to be viewed as value-destructive activity.

"Our top precious metals equities remain Agnico Eagle, Barrick and Newmont."

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