BASE METALS

Jefferies optimistic on recovery from soft patch in metals demand

'The inflection is coming'

Staff reporter

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Analysts noted there was currently a soft patch in metals demand.

The copper and iron ore prices have softened from record highs reached in May, of US$10,747.50 per tonne and circa $230/t respectively.

Spot copper was below $9,500/t on the London Metal Exchange yesterday and 62% Australian fines have fallen to $163/t according to MySteel.

"Slowing [Chinese] credit growth, especially when combined with high inflation, implies that Chinese demand is likely to remain weak, but there are reasons to be optimistic about more accommodative policies leading to a recovery from the current soft patch in 2022," equity analyst Christopher LaFemina said.

He said the lagging impact of decelerating credit growth was still an issue, as was the Delta variant outbreak and seasonal weakness in August, and demand strength in the rest of the world was unlikely to offset further Chinese weakness in the near term.

"However, we believe the inflection is coming as demand is likely to stabilise in China and improve elsewhere in 2022," he said.

"Consensus estimates continue to be far too low, in our view, free cash flow is at record levels in most cases, very large capital returns have begun and should continue, and sentiment has become overly negative.

"Our top picks for leverage to the recovery from the current soft patch include Glencore, Anglo American, Freeport and First Quantum."

Jefferies has price targets of 3,352.50p for Anglo American, 330.45p for Glencore, C$26.54 for First Quantum Minerals and US$38.22 for Freeport-McMoRan.

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