M&A

Analysts say US coal merger not anti-competitive

The proposed “extraordinary” joint venture between US coal majors Peabody Energy and Arch Coal will be structurally beneficial, rather than anti-competitive for US energy markets in the long run, according to Jefferies analysts.

Staff reporter
Jefferies on Peabody and Arch’s proposed “extraordinary” coal JV

Jefferies on Peabody and Arch’s proposed “extraordinary” coal JV

They said this was a result of radical changes in US energy markets, due to hydraulic fracking (gas) and advances in technology.

Peabody and Arch announced their plans last week, which would see the pair's Powder River Basin (PRB) and Colorado assets combined and unlock an estimated US$820 million in pre-tax synergies.

In a note dated yesterday, Jefferies analysts said they believed market concentration and pricing power would be considered for the broader energy market, not thermal coal in the PRB, due to the end markets served.

"In our view, a consolidated PRB asset base should be favourable for utilities rather than anti-competitive as it will enable PRB mines to survive and be a third source of energy supply to utilities," analyst Chris LaFemina said.

"We expect this JV to get regulatory approval on the grounds that it will be beneficial to the highly competitive US energy market."

Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon said the proposed combination better positioned the two companies "to be more competitive in a changing market while providing solid employment going forward".

"In our office's preliminary discussions with Peabody president and CEO Glenn Kellow, we perceived this move to be a positive step," he said in a statement.

Both companies have emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in recent years, while fellow PRB producer Cloud Peak Energy voluntarily filed for Chapter 11 last month, saying it believed a sales process would provide the best opportunity to maximise value.

Jefferies analysts reiterated a buy rating for both Arch Coal and Peabody.

LaFemina put a price target of US$115 for Arch shares, which last traded at $93.91.

He said Peabody's price target was $38, compared with its Friday close of $23.81.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the farming sector, brought to you by the Kondinin team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the farming sector, brought to you by the Kondinin team.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Investor Sentiment Report 2024

Survey revealing the plans, priorities, and preferences of 120+ mining investors and their expectations for the sector in 2024.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Mining Equities Report 2023

Access an exclusive, inside look on the quarterly mining IPOs and secondary raisings data and mining equities performance tables with an annual Stock Exchange Comparisons supplement.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence World Risk Report 2023 (feat. MineHutte ratings)

A detailed analysis of mining investment risks across 121 jurisdictions globally, built on 11 ‘hard risk’ metrics and an industrywide survey.

editions

Mining Journal Intelligence Global Leadership Report 2023: Social licence

Gain insights into social licence trends and best practices from interviews with 20+ top mining company executives and an industrywide survey.